Wind Power Project Financial Model – Uzbekistan (100 MW)
A Comprehensive Study Report & Financial Analysis
1. Executive Summary
This report presents a detailed financial and economic model for a 100 MW on-shore wind power project in Uzbekistan, with reference to the Karakalpakstan (Nukus) Wind Farm developed by ACWA Power. The analysis covers capital costs, revenue projections, operational assumptions, financing structure, sensitivity tests, and risk assessment to evaluate project feasibility and investor returns.
2. Project Overview
- Capacity: 100 MW (on-shore wind)
- Developer: ACWA Power
- Location: Karakalpakstan Region, Uzbekistan
- Investment Cost: USD 108–117 million
- PPA Tariff: 2.5695 US cents/kWh
- Term: 25 years
- Off-taker: JSC National Electric Grid of Uzbekistan (NEGU)
Funded by EBRD and other DFIs, the project will deliver an estimated annual reduction of 178,000 t CO₂ and supply clean energy to around 120,000 homes.
3. Market & Policy Context
Uzbekistan targets 8 GW of renewables by 2030, with 3 GW allocated to wind power. The 100 MW Karatau Wind Project is the country’s first publicly tendered wind project and forms part of its strategic push for cleaner and more sustainable power generation.
4. Financial Model Assumptions
| Parameter | Assumption |
|---|---|
| Installed Capacity | 100 MW |
| Capacity Factor | 30 % |
| Annual Generation | ≈ 262,800 MWh |
| Tariff | USD 0.0257 / kWh |
| O&M Cost | USD 2.5 million / year |
| Total CapEx | USD 110 million |
| Debt–Equity Ratio | 70:30 |
| Debt Tenor | 15 years @ 6 % interest |
| PPA Term | 25 years |
5. Key Financial Results
- Year 1 Revenue: ≈ USD 6.75 million
- Year 1 EBITDA: ≈ USD 4.25 million
- Indicative Equity IRR: 8 – 12 %
- Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR): ~1.1–1.3x (typical)
The project’s profitability depends on maintaining capacity factors above 30 % and managing O&M expenses efficiently.
6. Sensitivity Analysis
Equity returns are highly sensitive to wind resource, tariff rate, and financing terms. Key effects:
- +5 % Capacity Factor → +10–12 % Equity IRR
- +10 % Tariff → +9 % NPV
- +2 % Interest Rate → −6 % NPV
7. Risk Assessment & Mitigation
- Wind Resource Risk: Mitigated via site data and independent verification.
- Off-taker Credit Risk: Covered by government support agreement.
- Construction Risk: Fixed-price EPC contract and insurance coverage.
- Currency Risk: USD-denominated PPA.
8. Economic & Environmental Impact
This 100 MW project contributes to sustainable economic growth, providing employment, reducing carbon emissions, and improving energy independence. It represents a model for future renewable energy investments in Uzbekistan and Central Asia.
9. Conclusion
The 100 MW Wind Power Project in Uzbekistan is financially feasible with prudent assumptions and stable regulatory support. With a tariff of 2.57 cents/kWh and 25-year PPA, the project can yield a healthy IRR if operational efficiency and financing discipline are maintained. It stands as a landmark example for future renewable development in the region.
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